Author ' s personal copy Sustainable energy development : The present ( 2009 ) situation and possible paths to the future q

Recent estimates and forecasts of the oil, gas, coal resources and their reserve/production ratio, nuclear and renewable energy potential, and energy uses are surveyed. A brief discussion of the status, sustainability (economic, environmental and social impact), and prospects of fossil, nuclear and renewable energy use, and of power generation (including hydrogen, fuel cells, micropower systems, and the futuristic concept of generating power in space for terrestrial use), is presented. Comments about energy use in general, with more detailed focus on insufficiently considered areas of transportation and buildings are brought up. Ways to resolve the problem of the availability, cost, and sustainability of energy resources alongside the rapidly rising demand are discussed. The author’s view of the promising energy R&D areas, their potential, foreseen improvements and their time scale, and last year’s trends in government funding are presented. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. An executive summary of the paper The status at the end of 2008 of energy resources and use, emissions, and related areas of water and agricultural food production, is briefly summarized. Elaboration follows in Sections 2e5, discussion of R&D funding in Section 6, and recommendations for possible paths to the future in Section 7. The current energy resources and consumption situation has not changed much relative to last year: ➢ Amajor concern (or opportunity?) is, however: the price of oil was lately growing very rapidly, from $28/barrel in 2003, to $38 in 2005 and occasionally to above $80 in 2006 and peaking at $147 in 2008, but then precipitously dropping to $40 by the end of 2008. The peak price is one to two orders of magnitude higher than the cost of extraction, possibly meaning that financial speculation is overwhelming supply anddemand, and all technical improvements. ➢ In 2008 world primary energy use rose by 1.4%, with the increase rate dropping, due to rising prices, the recent economic downturn, and increases in energy efficiency, but is likely to rise again soon with the economy, as the large developing countries in Asia keep improving their standard of living, China’s rose by 7.2% (lowest since 2002), India’s by 5.6%, and some significant drops are those of the EU e 0.56%, Japan e 1.9%, US e 2.8%, and led by Australia e 4.2%. ➢ The reserves-to-production ratio (R/P) remains rather constant: w40 for oil, w60 for gas, and 120þ for coal, and mostly rising! There probably exists sufficient oil and gas for this century and coal for 2 or more. ➢ Tar sands and oil shales are becoming more attractive and available in quantities probably exceeding those of oil and gas. ➢ Nuclear power produces w14% of world electricity; the number of reactors is increasing very slightly; public perception is improving, new government initiatives started, but the same problems remain. Recent stoppage of the development of the Yucca Mountain long-term nuclear waste storage facility is a serious setback. ➢ Renewable energy can satisfy at least two orders of magnitude more than the world energy demand, but negative impacts are not inconsequential (Section 4.5 below). B Wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) are experiencing an exponential growth as costs decrease. q Invited keynote paper from the 2009 Dubrovnik Conference on Sustainable Development of Energy Water and Environment Systems, September 29e3 October 2009, Dubrovnik, Croatia. * Tel.: þ1215 8984803; fax: þ1 215 5736334. E-mail address: [email protected]